Now that we're officially in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, the Next Gen Stats analytics team is excited to unveil a new suite of advanced metrics designed to revolutionize how we evaluate tackling, point after touchdown decisions and pre-snap offensive dynamics. Powered by AI and statistical modeling techniques, with the Amazon Web Services Professional Services team (), these new tools push the boundaries of football analytics, offering deeper insights into aspects of the game that have long been challenging to quantify.
As we've provided in the past, here's a look at the new NGS metrics set to transform game analysis in 2024.
Tackle Probability (and missed tackles)
Tackling remains one of the most fundamental -- yet complex -- aspects of football. Traditional statistics like solo and assisted tackles have long been used to measure defensive performance, but they often fail to capture the nuances of the game. Enter Tackle Probability, a revolutionary AI-driven metric developed in collaboration with the Amazon Web Services Professional Services team and trained on . This cutting-edge tool goes beyond mere counts, analyzing the likelihood of a successful tackle in real time and identifying missed tackles as they happen.
Building on the spearheaded by winners Matthew Chang, Katherine Dai, Daniel Jiang and Harvey Cheng, Tackle Probability leverages a tree-based machine learning modeling architecture to process millions of data points per game, incorporating 20 different features for each of the 11 defenders every tenth of a second to estimate the chances of a tackle. By predicting the likelihood of a successful tackle after a handoff or catch, the model converts these probabilities into detailed metrics like tackle opportunities, missed tackles, group tackles and more.
With Tackle Probability, teams, broadcasters and fans can now quantify tackling efficiency like never before. Whether it's highlighting a defensive star who consistently puts himself in the right position or analyzing how many missed tackles a dynamic running back forces, this metric offers a deeper understanding of one of football's most critical skills.
Offensive Shift and Motion Classification
In today's NFL, offenses are increasingly turning to pre-snap movements to gain a competitive edge over defenses. The latest addition to the Next Gen Stats toolbox -- Offensive Shift and Motion Classification -- is here to decode these strategies.
Using pre-snap tracking data, this metric analyzes variables like speed, acceleration and distance traveled by offensive players once the line is set. By employing an model, the algorithm classifies movements into shifts, motions and motions at the snap. Shifts involve simultaneous position changes by multiple players, while motions refer to the movement of a single player, with "motion at the snap" indicating a player's still moving as the play begins.
But that's just the beginning. Throughout the season, NGS will unveil advanced motion types like fly, jet, glide, orbit and exit, each providing further granularity to pre-snap analysis. By examining the frequency and effectiveness of these play calls, this new metric sheds light on the creativity and execution of NFL offenses, giving analysts and fans a clearer picture of how teams set themselves up for success before the snap.
PAT Decision Guide
Deciding whether to go for two or kick the extra point after a touchdown can be one of the most crucial decisions a coach makes. The Next Gen Stats PAT Decision Guide is here to provide real-time, data-driven support for these pivotal moments, offering insights into the optimal choice based on specific game situations.
The PAT Decision Guide utilizes rest-of-game simulations to compare the odds of winning under different scenarios -- whether a team goes for two or kicks the extra point. The model considers factors such as the projected drives remaining in the game, the likelihood of future scores across those possessions and the probabilities of successful two-point conversions and extra points.
By evaluating the win rates of teams that follow the model's recommendations versus those that don't (since 2016, when Next Gen Stats began), we found that making the optimal decision can increase a team's chances of winning by approximately five percentage points per game. This season, expect to see real-time PAT recommendations during broadcasts, providing fans with the same insights that coaches rely on in high-pressure point-after situations.
Field Goal Probability 2.0
Field goals are often the difference between victory and defeat, making their analysis critical to understanding game outcomes. The original NGS Field Goal Probability model set the standard by predicting the likelihood of a successful kick based on factors like distance and weather. However, the 2024 season brings a significant upgrade with Field Goal Probability 2.0.
Previously, the model treated all kickers equally, assuming that each had the same chance of making a 50-yard kick in a dome. But as any football fan knows, not all kickers are created equal. The updated model now accounts for individual kicker skill levels using a updated Field Goal Probability Over Expected metric. This enhancement allows the model to estimate the likelihood of a successful field goal based not only on the kick's difficulty but also on the kicker's historical performance.
NFL PRO is now part of 麻豆国产 Premium
As the NFL continues to innovate, the launch of NFL PRO within 麻豆国产 Premium marks a significant leap forward in how fans and analysts can engage with Next Gen Stats data. Available exclusively to 麻豆国产 Premium subscribers, NFL PRO offers access to more than 95 unique player and team performance stats, making it the most comprehensive analytics platform the league has ever introduced. Coupled with All-22 Coaches Film, this tool allows users to analyze plays in unprecedented detail, breaking down every aspect of a game from the perspective of a professional coach or scout.
One of the standout features of NFL PRO is its dynamic dashboards, which seamlessly integrate statistical data with game film. For instance, users can not only identify all occurrences of Dak Prescott throwing touchdown passes against the blitz but also watch the corresponding All-22 footage to understand the context behind each play. This powerful combination of numbers and film provides a richer, more immersive way to study the game, making NFL PRO an essential tool for those who want to take their football analysis to the next level.
Visit pro.nfl.com today to unlock access to Next Gen Stats data and so much more.
