Â鶹¹ú²ú

In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season, including:

• Top three risers/sliders from Week 9
• Three games worthy of NFL Pro deep dives
• Most intriguing game of Week 10
• Top five MVP candidates

But to kick things off, it's time to give out some midseason awards ...

It's midseason, which means the NFL is about to become even more fun to watch. Division races are tightening up. Some teams that started slowly have figured out what it takes to win consistently. And quite a few quarterbacks are heating up, so much so that the debates about who should win Most Valuable Player will become more spirited in the coming weeks.

As has become tradition with The First Read, this is the time when we scrutinize how the season's played out so far and provide perspective that you might appreciate. Instead of doing the typical midseason stuff -- MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, etc. -- it's more fruitful to come up with idiosyncratic categories that allow us to talk about what has really caught our eye. For this exercise, we'll provide superlatives from two different scopes of assessment: 1) What has already happened; and 2) what we think will happen.

So, here's our look back at what stood out in the first half of this season, along with our look ahead at what's on the horizon.

Looking back

Biggest surprise: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings. This has been one of the best stories in the NFL this season. There was no buzz when the Vikings signed Darnold to a one-year, $10 million deal in March. He'd become a journeyman quarterback, one who went from being a top-three pick of the Jets in 2018 to a player who couldn't keep a job in Carolina and eventually became a backup in San Francisco. At best, he was supposed to help rookie J.J. McCarthy get acclimated to the league and then move on down the road. Nobody saw Darnold leading the Vikings to a 5-0 start. The same is true when you think about him ranking among the top five in the league in passer rating (107.8). Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah deserves credit for pursuing Darnold as an option, while head coach Kevin O'Connell has done a fine job of coaching him up. But make no mistake: This doesn't happen if Darnold doesn't come in and prove he has the ability to do some of the things people projected upon him when he was a younger hotshot prospect. Darnold is a testament to what can happen when you give a talented player a strong supporting cast and reliable coaching. The Vikings, now 6-2 after Sunday night’s win over Indianapolis, are a serious playoff contender because of that.

Biggest disappointment: New York Jets. This one isn't even close. The Jets came into this season believing they could make up for what didn't happen last year, when their Super Bowl dreams vanished as soon as Aaron Rodgers sustained a torn Achilles on the first drive of the 2023 campaign. What we've learned this fall is that this operation was always going to be fool's gold. Yes, it was nice to see the Jets finally get a win on Thursday, when they beat the Texans. That shouldn't generate renewed optimism about where this 3-6 team is heading for the rest of the season. The Jets broke a five-game losing streak with that Week 9 victory. They've fired head coach Robert Saleh and demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Just over a week ago, they lost to New England, a team that will most likely be holding a top-five pick in next year's NFL draft. The trade for wide receiver Davante Adams also seems like a case of too little, too late, as New York lost the first two games after he arrived from Las Vegas. Last year, the Jets were a trendy Super Bowl pick because Rodgers was in the building and that defense was hard to handle. This year, they feel like a cautionary tale, an example of what can go wrong when you believe one man is all that is keeping you from winning a championship.

Best offseason acquisition: Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens. This honor could easily go to Darnold or Philadelphia running back Saquon Barkley. It's going to Henry, though, because he's been more dominant than both those players and even made other teams -- namely the Cowboys -- look ridiculous for not pursuing him this offseason. He leads the league in rushing yards (1,052), rushing touchdowns (11) and 100-yard efforts (five). At his current pace, Henry would finish just shy of 2,000 rush yards -- a mark he surpassed in 2020 -- and the space between him and everyone else competing for Offensive Player of the Year already feels like the size of Nova Scotia. Those are just the raw numbers, by the way. The more impressive aspect of Henry joining the Ravens is what his presence has meant for everyone else in that offense. Lamar Jackson has two Most Valuable Player awards, and he might just win a third with Henry lining up in the same backfield. Younger players like wide receiver Zay Flowers and tight end Isaiah Likely continue to blossom, while left tackle Ronnie Stanley is playing his best football in years. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken also is doing things with this attack that we've never seen in Baltimore. Henry isn't the only reason for all this, but it's not a coincidence that this team turned itself around after an 0-2 start simply by handing him the football more often.

Best coaching job: Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs' head coach has done a masterful job keeping his team in the hunt for a three-peat despite losing an assortment of key players to injury. Kansas City has lost its two top wide receivers (Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown), its starting running back (Isiah Pacheco, who's aiming to return from a broken leg later this month) and a cornerback who was playing well (Jaylen Watson). Yet the Chiefs remain undefeated heading into their Monday night matchup with Tampa Bay and in a great spot to claim the top seed in this year's AFC postseason. As much as Reid is blessed to have the greatest player on the planet in quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he also deserves credit for adapting to deal with all those losses at a time when Mahomes hasn't been playing up to his lofty standards. The Chiefs came into this season looking to return to the aggressive downfield passing that has largely defined this team under Reid and Mahomes. They're now running the football more than ever -- nearly half of Reid's calls are runs this season -- and leaning into a defense that once again is making huge plays at critical moments under mastermind coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The Chiefs have long been a team that knows how to win when it matters most. They're doing it this year because their head coach has kept them focused through a variety of daunting challenges.

Most consequential game of the first half: Lions beat Vikings in Week 7. Detroit came into this season with its eyes fixed on the Super Bowl after losing in last year’s NFC Championship Game. This was the game that told us this team should be the front-runner to take the conference crown this time around. The Lions didn't just go into Minnesota and earn a 31-29 win. They beat a Vikings team that had been undefeated and rolling. They became the first team this season to create serious problems for a Minnesota defense that already had flustered notable quarterbacks like Rodgers, San Francisco's Brock Purdy, Houston's C.J. Stroud and Green Bay's Jordan Love. The Lions already had scored 89 total points in their previous two games, but this was the moment when nobody could question the quality of opponent. The NFC North had the look of a division that would be the NFL' s best this season because of Green Bay's potential, Chicago's offseason moves and Minnesota's talent. Detroit's victory proved that it is still the best of the bunch and that all roads to this year's NFC title are going to lead through Motown.

Looking ahead

Overachieving team with the most staying power: Washington Commanders. The Commanders are no longer a cute little story. They are a serious threat to win the NFC East with a rookie quarterback who deserves to be in the conversation for league Most Valuable Player. Jayden Daniels has done his part this season, which has involved both growing up in a hurry and making big-time plays when called upon. He's on pace for 3,673 passing yards and 867 rushing yards, and he's already produced the highlight of the season with his game-winning Hail Mary pass against Chicago a week ago. The really encouraging aspect of the Commanders is that their defense has improved drastically over the last month. The same unit that gave up an average of 29.3 points through the first three games has allowed an average of just 16.8 in the last six. There are some tough challenges coming in the second half, including this week’s meeting with Pittsburgh, two games against the Eagles and a Week 17 matchup with Atlanta. But there are also plenty of good vibes brewing for a Washington team that improved to 7-2 after beating the Giants on Sunday. That's not going to change anytime soon.

Underachieving team most likely to turn things around: Cincinnati Bengals. It's been a frustrating year for the Bengals, who started 1-4, but it's still too early to count them out. They just smashed the Raiders by a score of 41-24, and they have a chance to reach .500 for the first time this season if they can win in Baltimore on Thursday. That might sound like a daunting task, but Cincinnati was on the verge of beating the Ravens in Week 5 until a on a field goal killed those hopes. That play was Exhibit A for why the Bengals actually can get right in the second half of the season: Most of their problems come down to self-inflicted wounds. They blew that game-winning field goal try against the Ravens. A pass-interference call on a fourth-and-16 play cost them a win in Kansas City. A Mike Gesicki fumble at the goal line was a huge turnover in a 16-10 loss to New England in the season-opener. Yes, these sound like excuses. But these are also plays that can be cleaned up. The Bengals have plenty of talent and their defense has performed better as the health along the defensive line has improved. Quarterback Joe Burrow also made it clear that should get this team into the postseason, so that means the Bengals need to win six of their last eight to get there. There are some tough opponents coming -- including an upcoming three-game stretch against the Ravens, Chargers and Steelers -- but their fate is in their hands. This is the same team that won 12 of 14 games in 2022 after starting 0-2. It can heat up fast.

Top breakout candidate: Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals. There have been enough flashes of greatness from Harrison to believe he might be even more dangerous in the second half of this season. He had 111 yards on six receptions in a win over Miami in Week 8. He produced 130 yards and two touchdowns on four catches in a Week 2 victory over the Rams that provided the first glimpse of how competitive the Arizona Cardinals could be. This team is now 5-4 and very much in the thick of the NFC West race. It's hard to see Arizona winning it without more big days from a wide receiver whom it selected with the fourth overall pick in the draft. Harrison has all the tools to be special -- the size, the speed and the bloodlines (his father was a Hall of Fame receiver with the Indianapolis Colts). All he needs now is the seasoning. It's already clear that he expects a lot from himself. After that big game against Miami, he talked about being more consistent from week to week and how much he's learning after every outing. It's only a matter of time before he finds a steady groove. Don't be surprised if that maturation coincides with the Cardinals making a run at a playoff spot.

2025 free agent who will increase his value the most: Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals. You can understand why Higgins has been so frustrated by his contract situation in Cincinnati, but he'll be a happy man in March. There isn't a more prominent wide receiver with an expiring contract playing in the league right now. That means plenty when thinking about the kind of money that players at that position are receiving, as Minnesota's Justin Jefferson averages $35 million annually and five other wideouts make . The Bengals aren't likely to keep Higgins because his teammate, Ja’Marr Chase, is searching for his own deal in that lucrative neighborhood. Higgins also has made a strong case to warrant such riches, even though he's missed four games with hamstring and quad injuries this season. The Bengals offense operates more smoothly when Higgins is playing. Chase is averaging 104.6 receiving yards in the five games Higgins has played and just 48.5 in the four games Higgins has missed. Burrow has 12 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in the five games Higgins has appeared in. There's also the reality that Higgins is a legitimate WR1 who works as the second option in Cincy's offense. He's going to get paid next year. His injury history won't stop that from happening.

Assistant coach who will emerge as the hottest head-coaching candidate: Ben Johnson, Detroit Lions offensive coordinator. This guy was a hot item after last season, and he's going to be even more coveted once this year concludes. Johnson, plain and simple, has proven to be one of the most innovative minds in the game. The Lions have been obliterating opponents with his offense, one that leads league in scoring and has produced at least 40 points in three of Detroit's last five games. Yes, it helps that Johnson has a ton of talent to work with on that unit. It's also important to remember that people weren't signing Jared Goff's praises when he arrived in a trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Rams three years ago. Dan Campbell saw something brilliant in Johnson in the middle of their first season together, gave him play-calling duties and then watched the Lions' offense transform into a unit that is easily the league's best today. The best thing about Johnson is that he's not trying to prove how smart he is by throwing the football all over the place. He believes in balance, feeding everybody and putting his quarterback in the best possible position to succeed. Many people thought Johnson would already be leading a team, but he decided to stay put in Detroit for 2024. It's hard to see that happening in the coming offseason with the credentials he's already created.

Most consequential game of the second half: Chiefs at Bills (Week 11). For those already writing the Chiefs into the top seed in the AFC after their hot start, please pay attention to what's happening in Buffalo. The Bills are now 7-2 after surviving a scare in a 30-27 win over Miami on Sunday. Buffalo also has a four-game lead in the AFC East, which means it is a lock to claim its fifth straight division title. What's even scarier about this team is the schedule. The Bills have only two games remaining against teams that currently are over .500 -- this meeting with Kansas City and a Dec. 15 matchup with Detroit. The Chiefs don't have things nearly so easy down the stretch. They finish the season with games against the Chargers, Browns, Texans, Steelers and Broncos. Those are five physical teams (four of whom are in playoff contention) and three of those games will be played over the course of 11 days (at Cleveland, vs. Houston and at Pittsburgh). If Kansas City beats Buffalo, it can feel much better heading into that stretch because of tiebreaker scenarios (and the fact that the Bills aren't likely to run the table). If Buffalo wins, it could be in a great position to claim that first-round bye.

THREE UP

THREE DOWN

WORTHY OF DEEP DIVES

1. Miami suffers its second straight heartbreaking loss after Buffalo's Tyler Bass nails a 61-yard field goal in the final seconds.
2. Carolina snaps a five-game losing streak after Bryce Young leads his team on a game-winning drive in the final minutes.
3. Matthew Stafford ends this one in overtime with a deep touchdown pass to Demarcus Robinson.

MOST INTRIGUING GAME OF WEEK 10

MVP WATCH

A simple ranking of the top five candidates, which will be updated weekly, depending on performance. Here is how it stands heading into Week 9 (with DraftKings odds as of 9 a.m. ET on Monday, Nov. 4):

EXTRA POINT

My slowly evolving Super Bowl pick, which also will be updated each week, depending on performances: Lions over Bills.

Previous picks:

• Wee 8: Lions over Bills
• Week 7: Ravens over Lions
• Week 6: Ravens over Vikings
• Week 5: Ravens over Vikings
• Week 4: Bills over Vikings
• Week 3: Bills over Packers
• Week 2: Lions over Bengals
• Week 1: Lions over Texans

Back to top