Â鶹¹ú²ú

Skip to main content
Advertising

Season Predictions

2023 NFL season predictions: Picks to win MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookies of the Year

With the 2023 NFL season just around the corner, NFL.com's analysts predict who they think will win some of the league's most prestigious individual awards, specifically:

NOTE: All betting lines -- listed alongside each player's name -- are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook & Casino and are current as of 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Aug. 30.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

Rank
1
Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs · QB · +600

(14 votes: Baca, Band, Bhanpuri, Cersosimo, Filice, Gordon, Hanzus, Holzman-Escareno, Jones-Drew, Rank, Reuter, Ross, Sessler, Shook.)


2) Joe Burrow (+700) | 6 votes: Battista, Chadiha, Kownack, Parr, Patra, Zierlein.

T-3) Justin Herbert (+950) | 4 votes: Edholm, Florio, Magdziuk, Rosenthal.

T-3) Jalen Hurts (+900) | 4 votes: Gonzales, Grant, Mariucci, Walker.

T-5) Josh Allen (+750) | 3 votes: Abdoo, Okada, Schein.

T-5) Aaron Rodgers (+1500) | 3 votes: Bergman, Blair, Frazier.


Why Maurice Jones-Drew chose Patrick Mahomes: He's been the best player in football over the last half-decade. As long as he's healthy -- or until another player unseats him -- Mahomes is going to be the favorite for all the hardware and in all the games.

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
Christian McCaffrey
San Francisco 49ers · RB · +1100

(7 votes: Abdoo, Edholm, Filice, Mariucci, Parr, Patra, Walker.)


2) Ja'Marr Chase | (+1100) | 6 votes: Battista, Blair, Florio, Grant, Holzman-Escareno, Ross.

3) Justin Jefferson | (+1200) | 4 votes: Baca, Bergman, Gordon, Schein.

4) Tyreek Hill | (+1800) | 3 votes: Band, Chadiha, Gonzales.

T-5) Justin Fields | (+2200) | 2 votes: Bhanpuri, Magdziuk.

T-5) Jalen Hurts | (+2500) | 2 votes: Reuter, Sessler.

T-5) Aaron Rodgers | (+3000) | 2 votes: Frazier, Zierlein.

T-5) Garrett Wilson | (+2500) | 2 votes: Hanzus, Kownack.

T-9) Joe Burrow | (+2000) | 1 vote: Rank.

T-9) Derrick Henry | (+2000) | 1 vote: Cersosimo.

T-9) Lamar Jackson | (+2200) | 1 vote: Jones-Drew.

T-9) Travis Kelce | (+2500) | 1 vote: Okada.

T-9) Chris Olave | (+4000) | 1 vote: Rosenthal.

T-9) Tua Tagovailoa | (+4500) | 1 vote: Shook.


Why Eric Edholm chose Christian McCaffrey: This award often goes to the best non-QB. If McCaffrey can stay healthy and produce at the same per-game level he did with the 49ers last season following the trade, he could push for a 2,000-yard all-purpose campaign with double-digit TDs. Teams have had all offseason to draw up better game plans for Brock Purdy, so McCaffrey could be an even more critical part of this offense in 2023.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
Micah Parsons
Dallas Cowboys · LB · +450

(19 votes: Baca, Battista, Bergman, Blair, Chadiha, Edholm, Filice, Grant, Holzman-Escareno, Kownack, Mariucci, Okada, Parr, Patra, Reuter, Rosenthal, Ross, Walker, Zierlein.)


2) T.J. Watt (+700) | 7 votes: Band, Cersosimo, Gordon, Jones-Drew, Magdziuk, Rank, Schein.

3) Myles Garrett (+600) | 3 votes: Abdoo, Hanzus, Shook.

4) Nick Bosa (+1100) | 2 votes: Florio, Gonzales.

T-5) Sauce Gardner (+1200) | 1 vote: Sessler.

T-5) Roquan Smith (+4000) | 1 vote: Frazier.

T-5) Pat Surtain II (+4000) | 1 vote: Bhanpuri.


Why Jeffri Chadiha chose Micah Parsons: Parsons has been one of the league's most disruptive defenders in each of his first two pro campaigns. His penchant for game-changing plays and devastating sacks will earn him the hardware in Year 3.

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
Bijan Robinson
Atlanta Falcons · RB · +275

(26 votes: Abdoo, Band, Battista, Bhanpuri, Chadiha, Edholm, Filice, Frazier, Gonzales, Gordon, Grant, Holzman-Escareno, Jones-Drew, Magdziuk, Mariucci, Okada, Parr, Patra, Rank, Reuter, Rosenthal, Schein, Sessler, Shook, Walker, Zierlein.)


T-2) Anthony Richardson (+650) | 3 votes: Blair, Florio, Hanzus.

T-2 Bryce Young (+450) | 3 votes: Cersosimo, Kownack, Ross.

T-4) Zay Flowers (+1600) | 1 vote: Bergman.

T-4) Jahmyr Gibbs (+1000) | 1 vote: Baca.


Why Judy Battista chose Bijan Robinson: The Falcons ran the ball quite often last season -- finishing third in rushing yards -- and that was before they spent a top-10 pick on a back, so there is no reason to think they will abandon that strategy now that they can line up Robinson behind one of the game's better offensive lines. Combine that with Robinson's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and beat defenders in space, and the new face of the Falcons will be the first running back to win this award since Saquon Barkley in 2018.

DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
Jalen Carter
Philadelphia Eagles · DT · +500

(12 votes: Band, Florio, Frazier, Grant, Hanzus, Jones-Drew, Kownack, Magdziuk, Okada, Ross, Schein, Walker.)


2) Will Anderson Jr. (+500) | 11 votes: Battista, Blair, Cersosimo, Chadiha, Edholm, Gonzales, Holzman-Escareno, Patra, Rank, Reuter, Zierlein.

3) Brian Branch (+3000) | 3 votes: Bhanpuri, Filice, Rosenthal.

T-4) Will McDonald IV (+2500) | 2 votes: Gordon, Parr.

T-4) Joey Porter Jr. (+2200) | 2 votes: Sessler, Shook.

T-6) Deonte Banks (+2200) | 1 vote: Abdoo.

T-6) Emmanuel Forbes (+1500) | 1 vote: Bergman.

T-6) Nolan Smith (+2000) | 1 vote: Baca.

T-6) Devon Witherspoon (+700) | 1 vote: Mariucci.


Why Mike Band chose Jalen Carter: Not often does a rookie talent like Carter join an already loaded unit like the Eagles' defensive front. With Javon Hargrave now in San Francisco, Carter will see plenty of opportunities early on as a pass rusher. I went with Carter over Will Anderson Jr., specifically, because I expect Philadelphia to be playing with a lead far more regularly than Houston, thus giving the Eagles rookie a whole bunch of snaps to really pin his ears back and get after the quarterback.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
Damar Hamlin
Buffalo Bills · S

(22 votes: Abdoo, Band, Battista, Bergman, Bhanpuri, Edholm, Florio, Gordon, Hanzus, Holzman-Escareno, Kownack, Magdziuk, Okada, Parr, Patra, Rank, Reuter, Rosenthal, Sessler, Shook, Walker, Zierlein.)


2) Calvin Ridley | 6 votes: Cersosimo, Chadiha, Filice, Grant, Jones-Drew, Schein.

3) Lamar Jackson | 2 votes: Blair, Ross.

T-4) Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 vote: Frazier.

T-4) Breece Hall | 1 vote: Mariucci.

T-4) John Metchie III | 1 vote: Baca.

T-4) Tua Tagovailoa | 1 vote: Gonzales.


*Caesars Sportsbook & Casino didn't offer betting lines on Comeback Player of the Year at publishing.


Why Nick Shook chose Damar Hamlin: Obviously, it would have been perfectly understandable if Hamlin had decided to retire after suffering a cardiac arrest on the field at Paycor Stadium last season. Instead, he’s returning to the field to finish the job he started years earlier. That determination alone makes this choice easy.

COACH OF THE YEAR

Rank
1
New York Jets' head coach Robert Saleh speaks to reporters at the NFL football team's training facility in Florham Park, N.J., Sunday, July 23, 2023. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Robert Saleh
New York Jets · +1600

(7 votes: Bhanpuri, Blair, Cersosimo, Chadiha, Mariucci, Parr, Zierlein.)


2) Mike Tomlin (+1800) | 5 votes: Band, Filice, Hanzus, Kownack, Ross.

3) Dan Campbell (+1000) | 4 votes: Battista, Okada, Reuter, Walker.

T-4) Matt LaFleur (+1400) | 3 votes: Bergman, Gordon, Patra.

T-4) Doug Pederson (+1500) | 3 votes: Grant, Holzman-Escareno, Jones-Drew.

T-6) Mike McDaniel (+1800) | 2 votes: Gonzales, Shook.

T-6) Arthur Smith (+1000) | 2 votes: Abdoo, Sessler.

T-6) Brandon Staley (+2200) | 2 votes: Florio, Frazier.

T-9) Matt Eberflus (+1300) | 1 vote: Magdziuk.

T-9) Sean Payton (+1200) | 1 vote: Edholm.

T-9) Ron Rivera (+4000) | 1 vote: Rosenthal.

T-9) DeMeco Ryans (+2000) | 1 vote: Baca.

T-9) Kyle Shanahan (+3000) | 1 vote: Schein.

T-9) Zac Taylor (+2200) | 1 vote: Rank.


Why Steve Mariucci chose Robert Saleh: After inheriting a two-win, talent-poor team in 2021, Saleh now has the Jets in position to make major waves in 2023. Embodying the personality of this group, the passionate head man is poised to lead the franchise back to the postseason for the first time since the 2010 campaign and earn much-deserved recognition for helping turn it around in just three seasons at the helm.

EACH ANALYST'S BALLOT

Table inside Article
Analyst MVP OPOY DPOY OROY DROY Comeback Coach
Keegan Abdoo Josh Allen Christian McCaffrey Myles Garrett Bijan Robinson Deonte Banks Damar Hamlin Arthur Smith
Michael Baca Patrick Mahomes Justin Jefferson Micah Parsons Jahmyr Gibbs Nolan Smith John Metchie III DeMeco Ryans
Mike Band Patrick Mahomes Tyreek Hill T.J. Watt Bijan Robinson Jalen Carter Damar Hamlin Mike Tomlin
Judy Battista Joe Burrow Ja'Marr Chase Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Will Anderson Jr. Damar Hamlin Dan Campbell
Jeremy Bergman Aaron Rodgers Justin Jefferson Micah Parsons Zay Flowers Emmanuel Forbes Damar Hamlin Matt LaFleur
Ali Bhanpuri Patrick Mahomes Justin Fields Pat Surtain II Bijan Robinson Brian Branch Damar Hamlin Robert Saleh
Tom Blair Aaron Rodgers Ja'Marr Chase Micah Parsons Anthony Richardson Will Anderson Jr. Lamar Jackson Robert Saleh
Brooke Cersosimo Patrick Mahomes Derrick Henry T.J. Watt Bryce Young Will Anderson Jr. Calvin Ridley Robert Saleh
Jeffri Chadiha Joe Burrow Tyreek Hill Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Will Anderson Jr. Calvin Ridley Robert Saleh
Eric Edholm Justin Herbert Christian McCaffrey Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Will Anderson Jr. Damar Hamlin Sean Payton
Gennaro Filice Patrick Mahomes Christian McCaffrey Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Brian Branch Calvin Ridley Mike Tomlin
Michael F. Florio Justin Herbert Ja'Marr Chase Nick Bosa Anthony Richardson Jalen Carter Damar Hamlin Brandon Staley
Leslie Frazier Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers Roquan Smith Bijan Robinson Jalen Carter Odell Beckham Jr. Brandon Staley
Christian Gonzales Jalen Hurts Tyreek Hill Nick Bosa Bijan Robinson Will Anderson Jr. Tua Tagovailoa Mike McDaniel
Grant Gordon Patrick Mahomes Justin Jefferson T.J. Watt Bijan Robinson Will McDonald IV Damar Hamlin Matt LaFleur
Marcas Grant Jalen Hurts Ja'Marr Chase Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Jalen Carter Calvin Ridley Doug Pederson
Dan Hanzus Patrick Mahomes Garrett Wilson Myles Garrett Anthony Richardson Jalen Carter Damar Hamlin Mike Tomlin
Anthony Holzman-Escareno Patrick Mahomes Ja'Marr Chase Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Will Anderson Jr. Damar Hamlin Doug Pederson
Maurice Jones-Drew Patrick Mahomes Lamar Jackson T.J. Watt Bijan Robinson Jalen Carter Calvin Ridley Doug Pederson
Bobby Kownack Joe Burrow Garrett Wilson Micah Parsons Bryce Young Jalen Carter Damar Hamlin Mike Tomlin
Michelle Magdziuk Justin Herbert Justin Fields T.J. Watt Bijan Robinson Jalen Carter Damar Hamlin Matt Eberflus
Steve Mariucci Jalen Hurts Christian McCaffrey Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Devon Witherspoon Breece Hall Robert Saleh
Matt Okada Josh Allen Travis Kelce Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Jalen Carter Damar Hamlin Dan Campbell
Dan Parr Joe Burrow Christian McCaffrey Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Will McDonald IV Damar Hamlin Robert Saleh
Kevin Patra Joe Burrow Christian McCaffrey Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Will Anderson Jr. Damar Hamlin Matt LaFleur
Adam Rank Patrick Mahomes Joe Burrow T.J. Watt Bijan Robinson Will Anderson Jr. Damar Hamlin Zac Taylor
Chad Reuter Patrick Mahomes Jalen Hurts Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Will Anderson Jr. Damar Hamlin Dan Campbell
Gregg Rosenthal Justin Herbert Chris Olave Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Brian Branch Damar Hamlin Ron Rivera
Marc Ross Patrick Mahomes Ja'Marr Chase Micah Parsons Bryce Young Jalen Carter Lamar Jackson Mike Tomlin
Adam Schein Josh Allen Justin Jefferson T.J. Watt Bijan Robinson Jalen Carter Calvin Ridley Kyle Shanahan
Marc Sessler Patrick Mahomes Jalen Hurts Sauce Gardner Bijan Robinson Joey Porter Jr. Damar Hamlin Arthur Smith
Nick Shook Patrick Mahomes Tua Tagovailoa Myles Garrett Bijan Robinson Joey Porter Jr. Damar Hamlin Mike McDaniel
Brendan Walker Jalen Hurts Christian McCaffrey Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Jalen Carter Damar Hamlin Dan Campbell
Lance Zierlein Joe Burrow Aaron Rodgers Micah Parsons Bijan Robinson Will Anderson Jr. Damar Hamlin Robert Saleh

Related Content