Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of each week.
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HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 16.5
Michelle: After a slow start to the season for his stat sheet, Herbert has come alive and scored at least 19 fantasy points in each of the last three games, with two touchdowns every time out. Jim Harbaugh is starting to tap into Herbert's potential as a mobile QB, he has run for 49 and 32 yards in two his last three games.
On Sunday night, the Chargers will face the Bengals, who have struggled defensively for the vast majority of the season. Over the last three weeks, the Bengals let Jalen Hurts score 35.1 fantasy points and Lamar Jackson 32.9 points against them (both quarterbacks put up four touchdowns against Cincinnati).
PROJECTED POINTS: 15.1
Matt: Wilson has topped this projection in two of his three starts this season, and only missed it in the third because of a fumble. If he'd thrown enough passes to make the "qualified quarterbacks" list right now, Wilson's 18.9 fantasy PPG would rank seventh and his 8.7 yards per attempt and 7.1 percent TD rate would both rank top three. Plus, he's finally supported by a viable two-receiver set with trade addition Mike Williams -- who scored a touchdown in his first game with Pittsburgh -- joining George Pickens.
But perhaps most importantly, the Ravens' pass-funnel defense has allowed the opposing QB to top this projection in eight of 10 games for an overall average of 22.2 fantasy points per game. Wilson is a near-lock for 20 fantasy points and a QB1 week in this matchup.
PROJECTED POINTS: 16.3
Michelle: Despite looking fantastic on the field, Gibbs has not put up big fantasy numbers in either of his last two games. He scored 14.6 and 12.8 fantasy points in Week 9 and 10, respectively, after posting at least 16.3 points in six of his first seven games of the 2024 season. His slump ends this week in an incredible matchup.
The Jaguars have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season, giving up the third-most touchdowns and fourth-most receiving yards per game to the position. Over the last three weeks, both Saquon Barkley (32.9 points) and Josh Jacobs (25.5) finished as top-three scorers at their position after games against Jacksonville.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.6
Matt: This might be one of the last weeks we can play Hunt, with the impending return of Isiah Pacheco. Fortunately, it's a great play. The Bills have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Specifically, they've allowed the most receptions, most receiving yards and second-most receiving touchdowns per game to the position ... and Hunt just logged seven catches on 10 targets in a close, catch-up game against Denver.
It doesn't hurt that Hunt has fallen short of this projection line just once in his last five games with Kansas City. He's a bell-cow back with an incredibly strong goal-line role. He should beat this mark with ease and could obliterate it in PPR with a heavy pass-game workload.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.7
Matt: Unlike my other two "Higher" picks, this one is a little less obvious. McConkey has only hit 12-plus fantasy points once in his last five games and has fallen short of 70 receiving yards in all but one contest this season. I'm feeling optimistic, though. Justin Herbert has started to turn up the heat lately, and this rookie wide receiver remains one of his top options (despite a fluky two-target game last week).
Plus, the Chargers have a three-star matchup advantage in overall passing efficiency, per of this Bengals-Bolts game. This season, Cincy has allowed the second-most receptions on in-breaking routes -- where McConkey makes most of his hay. Expect a handful of McConkey slants that break for big gains en route to (at least) six catches and 70 yards.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.3
Michelle: Not only has Seattle's secondary been bleeding fantasy points to the wide receiver position as of late, but Samuel has absolutely owned this divisional rival throughout his career. He has averaged 128.4 scrimmage yards and scored eight touchdowns over his eight career matchups (including playoffs) against the Seahawks. Per NFL Research, that is the most scrimmage yards per game by any wide receiver vs. any team in the Super bowl era (min. six games played).
Samuel has averaged 25 fantasy points per game in his career matchups against the Seahawks, hitting 14-plus points in each game and scoring 19-plus in seven of the eight games. Just a few weeks ago, Samuel put up a season-high 20.7 fantasy points against the Seahawks with 102 receiving yards and a touchdown.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 21.0
Michelle: I am putting my big girl pants on for this take. Jackson has been playing lights out this season, logging 21-plus fantasy points in all but two games. But this week, he heads to Pittsburgh to face the rival Steelers, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.
Over Jackson's four career starts against the Steelers, he's turned the ball over 10 times, while only throwing four passing touchdowns and scoring zero rushing TDs. Jackson has scored fewer than 15 fantasy points in three of the four matchups against Pittsburgh, with 17.6 points (Week 13, 2021) being his highest total. Last year, in his second MVP season, he scored just 9.9 fantasy points against the Steelers in Week 5 with zero touchdowns and two turnovers in the game.
PROJECTED POINTS: 10.6
Michelle: The days of Pollard seeing 20-plus touches and playing 80-plus percent of Tennessee's snaps seem to be over now that backfield mate Tyjae Spears has returned from injury. Pollard logged a season-low 53.7 percent of the Titans' offensive snaps and saw just 13 touches in Week 10. What is even worse is that Pollard hasn't seen a goal-line carry since Week 4 and he was on the sidelines for nearly all of the Titans' third-down plays in Week 10, with Spears stealing that role from him.
If his usage continues to be limited, it will be extremely difficult for Pollard to put up points against a tough Minnesota defense. Over nine games this season, the Vikings have allowed just four running backs to score 10-plus fantasy points against them -- and three of those four RBs needed 19-plus touches to get there.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.3
Matt: Anthony Richardson's return to the starting lineup is bad news for Downs owners. With Joe Flacco as the primary QB, the second-year wideout averages 16.8 fantasy points per game this season. With AR under center, that figure plummets to 9.6.
Richardson has targeted Downs on just 13.5 percent of his throws this season, completing just 50 percent of those tosses (for nine total catches). Flacco targeted Downs on 28 percent of attempts and completed 75 percent of them. You see the problem here. With Richardson back in the saddle, I have little to no interest in Downs.
PROJECTED POINTS: 10.9
Matt: If at first you succeed, do it again. That's how the saying goes, right? At any rate, Engram did fall short of his 12.2-point projection last week (10.0), and his projection has dropped accordingly -- to 10.9 against the Lions. Detroit has allowed just 7.6 fantasy points per game to the tight end position this season, second-fewest in the league. On top of that, Mac Jones simply cannot be trusted to operate a functional offense in Jacksonville.
As we touched on last week, Engram is consistently "meh" -- five catches for 40 yards or so -- which simply isn't a recipe for fantasy excitement. I would happily start guys like T.J. Hockenson, David Njoku, Mark Andrews and Sam LaPorta over him in Week 11 ... and might try to trade him before the deadline.
