Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of each week.
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HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 15.2
Matt: Kirk Cousins has been more like Kirk Conundrum this season, logging four games with fewer than 13 fantasy points, but posting 17.5 against the Eagles in Week 2 and 34.4 against the Buccaneers in Week 5. It's hard to trust him, but I'm willing to do so this week against the Seahawks. After shutting down Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson to start the season, the Seattle defense has produced the QB4, QB10 and QB6 over the last three weeks, allowing more than 22 fantasy points to each of Jared Goff, Daniel Jones and Brock Purdy. Cousins fits much better in the latter trio than the former, and I think his fantasy production will reflect that. He's an excellent stream in Week 7.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.9
Michelle: In his first NFL start, Maye scored 19.5 fantasy points despite throwing two interceptions. He passed for 243 yards and three touchdowns against the Texans, who boast a top-five passing defense this season. Maye also utilized his mobility in Week 6, putting up 38 yards on the ground.
This week, Maye gets to face the worst passing defense in the NFL. The Jaguars have allowed the most passing yards, passing touchdowns and fantasy points to the quarterback position this season -- in fact, Jacksonville is allowing four more fantasy points per game to QBs than any other team. Over the last four weeks, the Jags allowed Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, Joe Flacco and Caleb Williams to all score at least 23 fantasy points against them.
BONUS: If you want to go with a QB-WR stack, I also really like Demario Douglas to eclipse his projected total of 9.8 fantasy points. Douglas scored 21.2 fantasy points in Week 6 with Maye under center.
PROJECTED POINTS: 6.0
Michelle: After a massive performance in Week 5, Bigsby was a huge disappointment to fantasy managers in Week 6, scoring just 2.4 points. Despite Travis Etienne missing the majority of the game last week, Bigsby only received seven carries on the day, as the Jaguars were getting beaten down by the Bears' Caleb Williams-led offense.
This week, the Jaguars should be able to keep up with the Patriots' offense, which will allow Bigsby to have more carries. Etienne has been limited at practice with a hamstring injury, and New England's defense is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the running back position in 2024. The Pats have allowed 5 yards per carry to running backs this season (sixth-most in the NFL), while Bigsby leads all qualified rushers with an average of 7.2 yards a pop. Plus, Bigsby should handle all goal-line duties if Etienne is indeed out, and the Patriots have already allowed eight touchdowns to running backs this season.
PROJECTED POINTS: 9.4
Matt: All signs point to Chubb's return this Sunday, and it could hardly come at a better time. The Bengals are ranked , per NFL Pro, and have allowed a top-16 fantasy RB every week this season (and a top-10 RB in four of six). After trading away Amari Cooper, Cleveland is likely to be all in on the run game. And while the offense will likely continue to struggle, Chubb should see 15-plus touches right out of the gate.
It’s a little risky starting the 28-year-old running back in his first game back from a major knee injury, but if you don’t have better options, he should at least be a solid RB3. As an example, I’d gladly start him over Zack Moss, an RB counterpart in this game.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.9
Michelle: Over the past two weeks, Flowers has put up more than 110 receiving yards and scored at least 19 fantasy points in back-to-back games. The wideout has seen at least nine targets in four of six games this season and gets a great matchup against the Buccaneers in Week 7. Over the same two-week period, the Bucs have let Drake London (33.4), Darnell Mooney (31.5), Bub Means (15.5) and KhaDarel Hodge (14.7) each score at least 14 fantasy points against them.
PROJECTED POINTS: 7.5
Matt: The tight end with the longest active streak of games over seven fantasy points is George Kittle (at five). Who's next? Cade Otton, with four. He's averaged 6.8 targets, 4.5 receptions and 39.5 yards over the past month -- and while that doesn't sound inspiring, it's enough to top this projection and make him a worthy start in the right matchups. Like this one against Baltimore, who sport and who've allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
This figures to be a higher-scoring game in which Baker Mayfield and Co. have to throw quite a bit to keep up with the Ravens. While Tampa Bay receivers will get theirs, I expect enough leftovers for Otton to threaten double-digit fantasy points and possibly make a push for a TE1 finish.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 16.7
Matt: Fresh off a 20-burger, Hall is the second-highest projected running back for Week 7 ... and I’m going LOWER. Sorry to yuck your yum. In fairness, you’re still (likely) starting him, but I have far lower expectations against Pittsburgh -- -- than I did against the Bills’ bottom-half rush D last week. Hall was awful against the top-tier fronts of the Broncos and Vikings, so the floor is dangerously low here, especially for a "stud" player.
Hopefully, the addition of Davante Adams will improve the offense and therefore the upside opportunity for Hall. But for this week, in arguably the worst matchup possible, I’d lean away from the third-year back if you're lucky enough to have better starting options.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.3
Michelle: Not only is Mason dealing with a minor shoulder injury that could limit his snaps and touches in Week 7, but he also draws an extremely touch matchup. The Chiefs are yielding the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs in 2024, giving up just 3.1 yards per carry and 53 rushing yards per contest to the position. Kansas City has not allowed a running back to record 50 rushing yards in a game this season, with just one RB scoring 13-plus fantasy points. (Bijan Robinson had 13.2 points in Week 3, and that was with a touchdown.)
Mason has not hit 12 fantasy points in three of the last four weeks, including each of the last two games. His fantasy points are very reliant on touchdowns, as he is seldom used in the passing game. In the three games where he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown, he has averaged just 9.6 points per game.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.4
Michelle: The apparent change at quarterback from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson could be a very beneficial move for Pickens moving forward, but don't expect a big performance from the receiver this week. Not only is there a high probability that Wilson will be rusty in his first game in a new system, but the Jets are an extremely difficult matchup for wideouts. New York's allowing the lowest catch percentage and fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the WR position in 2024. Plus, Sauce Gardner can put extra attention on Pickens throughout the game, as he is the only true threat in the Steelers' WR room.
Pickens has only hit 11 fantasy points in one of the last five weeks (against the Colts' weak pass defense), and he has yet to score a touchdown this season.
PROJECTED POINTS: 8.7
Matt: Ridley isn’t being heavily started these days, but for those of you who still have him in your lineup -- or are considering dropping him -- I’m here to give you the permission to move on. Ridley has enjoyed one great game all year, and it took a 40-yard receiving touchdown and a fluke rushing touchdown to get there. In his other four games, he’s totaled 13.3 fantasy points. Last week, he saw eight targets ... for a mind-boggling zero catches.
On Sunday, he draws a matchup with a strong Bills secondary that ranks seventh in NFL Pro’s defensive long-passing efficiency. He’s a must-sit and should be dropped in essentially all leagues for someone like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Josh Downs or Jakobi Meyers.
