Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of each week.
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HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.5
Matt: Harris was seen with his arm in a sling on Monday, but Mike Tomlin has said the fourth-year back won’t have any limitations this Sunday. Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren’s Week 4 status is in question due to a knee injury. If Warren’s out, Harris surpassing his projection becomes even more likely, but I think it happens regardless. Why? Just look at Harris' consistency through three games:
- Week 1: 20 carries, 70 yards
- Week 2: 17 carries, 69 yards
- Week 3: 18 carries, 70 yards
This week, he gets a Colts defense that’s allowed a league-high 409 rushing yards to running backs, including 159 to Joe Mixon (most by any RB in 2024) and 151 to Josh Jacobs (tied for second-most). Harris could hit 11.5 points on rushing yards alone, but a couple of catches or a touchdown would lock it in with ease.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.8
Matt: Jones has been exceptional in 2024, averaging 108 scrimmage yards and 18.2 fantasy points per game. He has five catches in each of his last two contests and has scored on the ground and through the air. Meanwhile, Green Bay has faced two RB1s -- Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor -- and allowed 130-plus scrimmage yards to each of them. And, of course, there’s the “revenge game†narrative, as Jones takes on a Packers team that cut him in March.
Jones doubled this projection last Sunday against the Texans, and it’s more likely he does that again than falls short of the mark in Week 4 at Lambeau (where he’s averaged 16 fantasy points in 48 career games).
PROJECTED POINTS: 10.9
Michelle: Johnson has a groin injury and did not practice on Thursday, but he told reporters he . With that in mind -- and with Andy Dalton under center -- fantasy managers can actually feel good about placing Panthers players into their starting fantasy lineups again. Johnson saw a season-high 14 targets for eight receptions, 122 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. He put up 26.2 fantasy points last Sunday after scoring just 8.4 points over the first two weeks of the season combined.
Johnson should see double-digit targets each week as long as Dalton is under center, especially with Adam Thielen now on injured reserve, and Johnson gets an amazing Week 4 matchup against Cincinnati. Over the last two weeks, the Bengals allowed receivers Terry McLaurin and Rashee Rice to score more than 18 fantasy points against them.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.5
Michelle: The ninth overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft had a breakout performance last Sunday, putting up 112 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Colts. He played 99% of the Bears’ offensive snaps in Week 3 and saw 11 targets after having just nine total targets over the first two weeks combined. No NFL player ran more routes than Odunze (53) last week. With the Bears showing no ability to succeed running the ball, he could see a heavy workload again, even with Keenan Allen this week.
Plus, Sunday’s home game against the Rams offers a fantastic matchup to Bears pass catchers. The Rams have allowed a wide receiver to score 24-plus fantasy points against them in each of the first three weeks of the season -- Jauan Jennings (46.5), Marvin Harrison Jr. (29) and Jameson Williams (24.4).
PROJECTED POINTS: 6.2
Michelle: Wilson ran one fewer route and received just one fewer target than teammate Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 3, while catching three more balls than him. The second-year wideout recorded season-highs in targets (9), receptions (8) and receiving yards (64) last Sunday against Detroit, after having just four total targets over the first two weeks.
Wilson has hit more than 6.2 fantasy points in two of three games this season and gets the best fantasy matchup possible for receivers in Week 4 -- the Commanders, who have allowed nearly 22 more fantasy points to the position than any other team in 2024. At least three WRs from every opponent the Commanders have faced this season have scored at least 6.2 fantasy points, with four WRs putting up 22+ points against them already through three weeks.
PROJECTED POINTS: 9.2
Matt: This might look like “chasing the points†after Goedert went berserk in Week 3, but I promise it’s not. Goedert’s first 80 yards against the Saints came with no A.J. Brown (inactive with a hamstring injury) and his last 90 yards came with no AJB or DeVonta Smith, who left the game with a concussion. Also, Philadelphia placed WR Britain Covey on injured reserve this week after he had seven catches on seven targets the last two weeks.
If Brown and Smith are out again in Week 4, that leaves Goedert as the clear No. 1 for Jalen Hurts, with just Saquon Barkley and Jahan Dotson to challenge for targets. If both receivers were cleared to play, my opinion might change, but otherwise, I have Goedert as a top-five tight end.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 18.4
Matt: Burrow finally had a great game, to the tune of 25.4 fantasy points on Monday Night Football! Now he’s an auto-start again, right?! Well ... no. That was the first time Burrow topped his projection since November 2023. And it was against the QB-friendly Commanders, who dish out 20-burgers like a suburban dad at a barbecue.
While Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to the position since 2023, the Panthers have allowed the fifth-fewest, at just 13.6 per game. That’s primarily because they’ve allowed the fewest pass attempts per game while consistently playing from behind. This might be a big Zack Moss game, but Burrow will underperform once again -- he’s a fringe QB1 but will come up just short of this projection.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.3
Michelle: Jacobs has yet to hit 14 fantasy points in any game this season, and I don’t expect his first such game to come against the Vikings' smothering defense. Minnesota has allowed just 3.6 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown in 2024. Plus, Jacobs is starting to lose snaps to backfield mate Emanuel Wilson. Jacobs’ snap rate has decreased each week this season, while Wilson played on a career-high 41.3% of the Packers' offensive snaps in Week 3. Not only did Jacobs have to split time with Wilson last Sunday, he also was seriously outplayed by him -- Wilson averaged 1.1 more yards per carry and yards-after-contact per carry in Week 3.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.5
Michelle: Taylor has scored at least 15 points in each of his last two games, but it'll be hard for the former rushing leader to hit that mark against Pittsburgh's elite defense. The Steelers have allowed the second fewest yards per carry in the NFL and are the only team that has not allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Yes, Bijan Robinson put up 16.1 points against them in Week 1 in full PPR leagues, but he needed five receptions to hit that total -- Taylor, meanwhile, has just three receptions on the season.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.2
Matt: DK Metcalf: 29. George Pickens: 29. Mike Evans: 17. Those are the yardage totals for the three WR1s that have faced the Broncos and cornerback Patrick Surtain II this season. Those three guys combined for 14.5 fantasy points in their games against Denver. That would be just enough to top Wilson’s projection in Week 4 ... but unfortunately, that's not how it works.
Instead, despite his best performance on the year being 14.3 fantasy points with a touchdown (and just 33 yards), Wilson is projected all the way up at 14.2 against Surtain and Co. I’m a fan of Wilson and have him in (way too) many leagues, but this could be his worst game of the season.
